The Ghost

October 30, 2024

Today is the one day of the year where telling your friends and family you saw a ghost is socially acceptable.

As trick or treaters tromp through fallen leaves, the adult chaperones are likely thinking about who will be entering the haunted White House after next week.

This has been the fearful news story of the year when it comes to investing. Every year there is one of these news items. And of course, leery investors take fright consuming the doom and gloom news like mini Snickers bars.

The economic data (which is what truly matters long-term in investing) remains positive. Q3 2024 US GDP growth was 2.8%.¹ That is strong.

If you prefer to ignore the present and look at the past, does that change what the crystal ball says?

Nope. Deutsche Bank AG strategists noted, “that 13 of the last 15 US presidents have overseen annualized stock returns of between 10% and 17% during their terms, regardless of their party affiliations.” ²

According to Bloomberg’s research, “during the last eight elections, the S&P 500 increased an average 6.6% in the six months after Election Day, compared with a gain of 1.5% six months prior.” ²

Not so spooky after all. I’ll see you on the other side!

- Peter Egolf

1. Bloomberg – US Economy Expands at 2.8%, Powered by Resilient Consumer
2. Bloomberg – American Wealth Will Grow Either Way Under Harris or Trump, Survey Shows