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The President & The Stock Market

February 3, 2025

Two weeks ago, on January 20th, Donald Trump was sworn in as the 47th President of the United States. I suspect you might have heard by now. Whenever there is a change in political power, there’s understandably varying levels of anxiety around how new policies will affect the economy and the stock market.

At One Day In July, we do not mix politics and investing. As Dan Cunningham once told me, in all his years of investing, he’s never made a single investment decision with U.S. politics considered.

To illustrate this point, I’d like to shine the spotlight on the S&P 500’s returns through each of the last 24 administrations. While the S&P 500 isn’t an all-encompassing metric, it is considered a key benchmark for the overall stock market and economy.

During this span from March 1929 to January 2025, the United States endured the Great Depression as well as 14 economic recessions.

As you’ll quickly see, when we pull back and look at the total returns during these four-year periods, investors who stayed the course over the long-run were rewarded handsomely. The below returns include reinvested dividends.

• Biden (2021–2025): +65.9%
• Trump (2017-2021): +79.8%
• Obama’s 2nd Term (2013-2017): +66.7%
• Obama’s 1st Term (2009-2013): +86.4%
• W. Bush’s 2nd Term (2005-2009): -20.8%
• W. Bush’s 1st Term (2001-2005): -5.7%
• Clinton’s 2nd Term (1997-2001): +84.3%
• Clinton’s 1st Term (1993-1997): +94.8%
• H. W. Bush (1989-1993): +73.4%
• Reagan’s 2nd Term (1985-1989): +91.2%
• Reagan’s 1st Term (1981-1985): +56.9%
• Carter (1977-1981): +56.3%
• Nixon’s 2nd Term / Ford (1973-1977): +2.3%
• Nixon’s 1st Term (1969-1973): +32.2%
• Johnson’s 2nd Term (1965-1969): +34.2%
• Kennedy / Johnson’s 1st Term (1961-1965): +63.2%
• Eisenhower’s 2nd Term (1957-1961): +51.6%
• Eisenhower’s 1st Term (1953-1957): +108.5%
• Truman’s 2nd Term (1949-1953): +121.3%
• Roosevelt’s 4th Term / Truman’s 1st Term (1945-1949): +37.9%
• Roosevelt’s 3rd Term (1941-1945): +63.6%
• Roosevelt’s 2nd Term (1937-1941): -25.2%
• Roosevelt’s 1st Term (1933-1937): +233%
• Hoover (1929-1933): -68.3%

Since March 1929, the S&P 500 has returned roughly 9.8% annualized with dividends reinvested. Removing the Great Depression bumps that return to 11.6% annualized.

No matter who is elected to office, American corporations are consistently innovating and producing for their consumers, clients, and shareholders. While politics can create short-term volatility, the long-term growth of the market is driven by entrepreneurship, technological advancements, and the resilience of businesses finding new ways to thrive.

Tune out the noise.

Stay consistent with your contributions.

Your future self will thank you.

Note: The data presented in this newsletter is not adjusted for inflation — the four year returns are calculated with the month the president entered office to the month he left office.

- Chris McKeown

Source: https://dqydj.com/sp-500-return-calculator/