Vergennes, VT Financial Advisors

Don't Fight the Fed - Revisited

The title of our third quarter update letter was “Don’t Fight The Fed.” It’s a long-standing adage of our industry that implies the U.S. Federal Reserve is the 800-pound gorilla in the room, and market participants should not bet against their intentions.

What is a "Normal" Level of Interest Rates?

If you have listened to or read the financial news recently, you likely have encountered commentary by countless experts, including economics professors, U.S. senators, and commercial real estate titans, expressing concern about the rising interest rate environment we are currently enduring.

Investment Risk vs. Investment Return

Investing entails several inherent risks. In the case of equities, investors generally think of risk as the possibility of losing money relative to the initial investment.

Using U.S. Treasury Bonds to Reduce Risk

Historically, bonds have played two primary roles in balanced investment portfolios. They have generally paid a higher level of current income than stocks, making them the go-to vehicle for those in need of current income.

Understanding Fixed Income - Interest Rate Risk

While it is generally true that bonds are less volatile than stocks, bond investments are still subject to price fluctuations that can be material at times. Therefore, like any other investment, it is prudent to understand the drivers of fixed income performance in order to avoid taking on unintended risk.

Active vs. Passive Investment Management

The active vs. passive management debate has raged for years, but fortunately there is a depth of empirical evidence to evaluate. S&P Dow Jones Indices, LLC publishes their SPIVA U.S. Scorecard annually, which compares active managers’ returns to those of the various S&P indexes.

Moneyball Part 1

As long as humans are involved, neither sports nor investing will resemble science. Short-term results will be subject to randomness. However, in both cases, a basic understanding of probability increases the likelihood of long-term success.

How Worried Should you be About the Next Bear Market?

A market correction is defined as a decline of 10% or greater from the market's most recent high. A bear market is a more severe type of correction with a peak to trough decline of 20% or greater.

Moneyball Part 2

Investors are prone to many of the same subjective biases that influenced old school baseball scouts. The first step in mitigating the impact of those biases is to acknowledge their existence and to understand that no one is completely immune from them.

Should I Buy Bitcoin?

I’m concerned that the mass-production of digital assets will eventually have a negative “crowding out” impact on the scarcity argument for Bitcoin. It’s also possible that a better mousetrap will come along and turn Bitcoin into the “Palm Pilot” of cryptocurrencies.

Mutual Funds vs ETFs

A basic goal for many investors is to gain their desired market exposure in the most efficient and cost-effective way possible.

2020: A Case Study in the Futility of Market Timing

If you approach the market like it's a casino, the market will treat you like a gambler.

Is your Investment Advisor Worth One Percent?

Our fees are less than half of the McKinsey average for similarly sized portfolios.

Tax Strategy: Tax Loss Harvesting

It's a fact of investing that markets sometimes go down, and occasionally by a lot. It's also generally true that not all investments will perform well at the same time.

Tax Strategy: Tax Lot Optimization

As investment accounts age and grow in size, they often contain security holdings that have been accumulated gradually over time rather than purchased all at once.

The Expected Return is Market Return

One fairly straightforward, but important, point about investing is that the combined future return for all investors who purchase securities that are part of a given index must by definition equal the future return of that index before any fees.

Behavioral Biases in Investing: Ignoring the Noise

Loss aversion demonstrated that for most people, the negative feelings generated from incurring a loss outweigh the positive feelings generated from realizing an equal-sized gain.